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Absolute versus relative risk, one more time

Started 8 December 2025 · 17 replies · 142 hearts · read 1.4k times

BeaDublin, IE · 8 December 2025
7 months ago

Absolute versus relative risk, one more time Writing it down partly to work out what I actually think.

Putting this here because I do not want to be sold anything, I want to know what is actually established.

I want to be careful about how I phrase this because I am not accusing anybody of anything. I am asking what a document actually establishes.

I would like to understand the limits of this properly rather than the headline, because the headline is the part everybody already knows.

I have read the guides on this site on this subject and they were clearer than anything else I found, and my question sits just past where they stop.

Happy to be told I have misread it. That would be the most useful possible outcome of this post.

47

AbelAddis Ababa, ET
#1

I would say do read the supplementary material occasionally. Twice now the thing I wanted to know was only in there.

9

SunilFacilitatorBirmingham, UK
#2

A standing request in this circle: when you bring a paper, say what the methods section actually did. It is the part everybody skips and the part that decides what the paper is worth.

12

PerrineStrasbourg, FR
#3

My honest position is that the evidence base for the main compounds is genuinely substantial and the evidence for a great deal else is not.

10

TiborBratislava, SK
#4

What helped was somebody explaining confidence intervals to me properly, once, in plain terms, and I have read differently ever since.

9

PamSouthport, UK
#5

My experience is that the group is much better at this than I am alone, because somebody always spots the thing I skimmed.

8

AnnaAthens, GR
#6

Something practical: I write three sentences about each paper afterwards and I now have two years of notes I actually refer back to.

4

FabianBasel, CH
#7

What surprised me was how readable most of these are once you stop being intimidated by the first page.

6

TarqWindsor, UK
#8

Picking up Pam’s point rather than starting a new one.

The paper we read last month had a population nothing like most of this circle, which does not make it useless and does limit what it tells us.

5me too 4

NkemPort Harcourt, NG
#9

Nothing useful, just that I have been exactly here.

7

NadjaBelgrade, RS
#10

The trial that gets quoted most in general coverage is not the one that answers most of the questions people here actually have.

10me too 9

JunoBrighton, UK
#11

Coming back to what Nkem wrote further up, because it is the bit I keep thinking about.

What I would say is that an honest "we do not know yet" is worth more than a confident answer, and the papers say it more often than the coverage does.

7me too 9

PrunellaBury St Edmunds, UK
#12

My favourite session here was the one where we read a paper and concluded it did not support the thing everybody had been citing it for.

8

NilsUppsala, SE
#13

Something worth knowing: the follow-up periods in most of what we read are short relative to how long people actually take these things.

9

DevManchester, UK
#14

I found the funding declarations worth reading, not as an accusation, but because they tell you what question somebody was paying to have answered.

10

XanBerlin, DE
#15

The withdrawal numbers in a trial usually tell you more about tolerability than the tolerability section does.

7

SunilFacilitatorBirmingham, UK
#16

Facilitator note: the guides on reading a certificate and on what purity actually means answer most of the questions on this page and answer them better.

12me too 3

OskarWarsaw, PL
#17

Picking up Sunil’s point rather than starting a new one.

Something I got wrong early was reading a single paper as an answer. It is one piece of evidence and it usually raises three questions.

9