What a phase 1 result can and cannot tell you Writing it down partly to work out what I actually think.
Evidence question. I would rather have an honest "we do not know" than a confident answer.
I would like to know what the best single piece of human evidence is, because I suspect the honest answer is thinner than the discussion suggests.
I have a practical question that turns entirely on a technical detail, and I have not been able to get a straight answer to the technical detail.
To put the figure in the title beside the rest of it: 1. That is the whole of the arithmetic and none of it is an estimate.
I will summarise whatever the thread concludes and add it to my notes, in case it is useful to somebody later.
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